There are currency traders that use technical and fundamental analysis??


Yes -- the third type is the arbitrageur who plays on the discrepancies on the different exchanges.

You are so full of crap.
And the truth is a complete stranger to you my friend (of Fred).
Your understanding of economics is non existent if it weren't for Google.
A commercial loan has no effect on the money supply. You obviously don't understand that.
Who are you trying to fool. Money is only created with government debt.
Perhaps you would be so kind as to explain (within the next 15 minutes) as to what M3 really is in the Bahamian context. Bet you can't because like your political cohorts, you are way out of your league, so you substitute lies. Go back to your den of thieves.
Of course, you are PLP, so the truth is the first casualty of your sorry existence.
And the economy of the Bahamas is not structurally open. Any idiot knows that.

"A commercial loan has no effect on the money supply. You obviously don't understand that."
Wow!! now i know yinna aine know what yinna talking about!!!:hammer: Na just fa dat I aine gwine define M3 fer ya.. just ta see how long it take fa ya to get it right and define it yasef... Thank God fa the PLP!!
Na be careful I reading this stuff..and I is read good!

Yes -- the third type is the arbitrageur who plays on the discrepancies on the different exchanges.


I thought it was the arbitrageur, speculator and hedger. Which makes sense for a futures exchange, where most commodities are traded - currency, produce, oil and such. Fundamental analysts or technical analysts operate in stock exchanges. Stocks have an intrinsic value, thus the need for analysis to determine if the efficient market theory holds true - in other words, is the assets value reflected in its price. Currency has no expected return or expected cashflow - therefore, no intrinsic value or better said, a currency's intrinsic value is its price. I can't think of an instance where a currency's intrinsic value is incorrect, there may be a parity discrepancy creating an arbitrage opportunity - but there's never informational discrepancy as in the case of stocks, bonds or derivatives causing intrinsic value and price to be inconsistent.

"A commercial loan has no effect on the money supply. You obviously don't understand that."
Wow!! now i know yinna aine know what yinna talking about!!!:hammer: Na just fa dat I aine gwine define M3 fer ya.. just ta see how long it take fa ya to get it right and define it yasef... Thank God fa the PLP!!
Na be careful I reading this stuff..and I is read good!


(**** as he roars with laughter ****) you poor deluded soul. Or should I say "ya pore dluted sole" -- you real 'African' Bahamian you. Patrice would be proud of you. You een foolin' no one. Of course you are not going to define M3, because you can't. Pity. And I like your pseudo southern black "gwine" dialect too.

Ohhh the lies on your soul. When you stand before the Throne of Judgement, your tongue will burn with brimstone fulminating on that horrid tongue of yours forever. And forever is a long time in Hell my friend -- especially near the end. But you will have plenty of PLP company to share your misery.

I thought it was the arbitrageur, speculator and hedger. Which makes sense for a futures exchange, where most commodities are traded - currency, produce, oil and such. Fundamental analysts or technical analysts operate in stock exchanges. Stocks have an intrinsic value, thus the need for analysis to determine if the efficient market theory holds true - in other words, is the assets value reflected in its price. Currency has no expected return or expected cashflow - therefore, no intrinsic value or better said, a currency's intrinsic value is its price. I can't think of an instance where a currency's intrinsic value is incorrect, there may be a parity discrepancy creating an arbitrage opportunity - but there's never informational discrepancy as in the case of stocks, bonds or derivatives causing intrinsic value and price to be inconsistent.


I did the technical analysis programmes for a Bermudan house (they were heavily into gold, silver, the British pound etc). We did the WMA (weighted moving average) technical analysis combined with wavelet analysis of price history etc etc on currency as well as metals. So yeah, basically, forex technical analysis is big in some houses. Especially the wavelet analysis.

Wow, I've never heard that. Using historical prices of metals and currency to forecast price movements. I hope it paid off because it sounds like a whole lot of work for nothing.

Wow, I've never heard that. Using historical prices of metals and currency to forecast price movements. I hope it paid off because it sounds like a whole lot of work for nothing.


I'll rummage around and get you the title of some books.

found one:

Technical Analysis Applications in the Global Currency Markets (Hardcover)
by Cornelius Luca (Author) "Currency traders study the past behavior of currency prices on charts in order to forecast their future performance..." (more)

Ting-um - M0, M1, M2, & M3 are all measures of the money supply.

M0 as you know, is the narrowest gauge -- and not a true indicator. When you add up M0-M2, you have a decent picture of the measure. However when M0 thru to M2 is predicated on M3, then you have a reasonable ground for including M3 in the money supply.

The telling point is the delta between M2 and M3, and the ratio of the efficaciousness of the fiscal and monetary policy.


Right. I forgot my original question, I was attempting to measure velocity. I forgot to mention that.

The PLP were deathly afraid of international debt (ie borrowing money from entities like the Royal Bank) so they issued bonds and notes and made the Central Bank, and NIB buy them.

Government bonds and notes were investments for the NIB..without those investments they would have nothing to invest in..they were exellent investments ..so lets not diminish the ingenious nature of the plan the PLP hatched that has brought us greater disintermediation in financial services and a deepening and expansion of our little financial sector.

Right. I forgot my original question, I was attempting to measure velocity. I forgot to mention that.


Well good luck with velocity, because it is difficult -- incredibly difficult for the Bahamian picture.

A few of us have tried to model the Bahamian economy with some custom modelling tools, and we have found meaningful velocity figures to be elusive.

First and foremost, getting an accurate GDP deflator is real hard. When you go to Department of Statistics, they quote inflation rates by sector that makes no sense for an aggregate inflation rate. (Like certain elements of inflation calculations rise by double digits, while somehow it is pro-rated to below the rise in fuel prices for example).

The second problem with velocity calculations is the GDP figure itself. In classical economics, a GNP is more indicative of real economic activity and a better indicator of velocity. However since only 10 cents of every dollar 'sticks' to the economy (the rest is as a result of foreign ownership of 75% of our GDP and foreign ownership of the foodstuffs & supplies that fuel the tourism industry), calculating real velocity is difficult.

However, ex-Governor of the Central Bank, and ex-Minister of State for Finance, James Smith said that the economy was unsustainable in say the next ten years, and we heartily agree with him. Something is gotta give. And getting the true picture is badly hampered by a lack of credible statistics and input information.

When and if you get a velocity number, PM me and I will compare notes.

Government bonds and notes were investments for the NIB..without those investments they would have nothing to invest in..they were exellent investments ..so lets not diminish the ingenious nature of the plan the PLP hatched that has brought us greater disintermediation in financial services and a deepening and expansion of our little financial sector.


So this is why they scrapped the foreign investment law and let the NIB go to the foreign capital markets to invest, because the domestic return was too small. And typical PLP -- too little too late -- they are only allowing the NIB to invest a tranche of $25 million with perhaps a secondary tranche of the same amount. A drop in the bucket.

I'll rummage around and get you the title of some books.

found one:

Technical Analysis Applications in the Global Currency Markets (Hardcover)
by Cornelius Luca (Author) "Currency traders study the past behavior of currency prices on charts in order to forecast their future performance..." (more)


$350?!?!?!?!

I found an article.

http://www.ny.frb.org/research/epr/00v06n2/0007osle.pdf

I guess it is indeed so, again, news to me. I know dozens of people, even FX traders that would be baffled at the thought.

$350?!?!?!?!
I found an article.
http://www.ny.frb.org/research/epr/00v06n2/0007osle.pdf
I guess it is indeed so, again, news to me. I know dozens of people, even FX traders that would be baffled at the thought.


Man, I met a copper trader who worked with nothing but WMA's and he made enough money to retire three people. You have a lot of leverage in commodities, and if you have the capital to withstand the whipsaw of computer trading and margins calls, you are made in the shade. I don't have the nerve for that kind of potential losses.

First and foremost, getting an accurate GDP deflator is real hard. When you go to Department of Statistics, they quote inflation rates by sector that makes no sense for an aggregate inflation rate. (Like certain elements of inflation calculations rise by double digits, while somehow it is pro-rated to below the rise in fuel prices for example).

I'm looking at the Central Bank's page and it appears accurate to me, well, I shouldn't say accurate but the procedure looks right. A basket of items multiplied by the cost of each item multiplied by the weight of each item.

http://www.centralbankbahamas.com/public/RPIDEC05.pdf

Man, I met a copper trader who worked with nothing but WMA's and he made enough money to retire three people. You have a lot of leverage in commodities, and if you have the capital to withstand the whipsaw of computer trading and margins calls, you are made in the shade. I don't have the nerve for that kind of potential losses.


I don't do trading, still trying to get my foot into research. But I have more of a quantitative lean so I would assume prices are random and would never trust technical analysis particularly with commodities. I guess people do it and make money. I'd prefer to play it safe and try my hand at research or even IB.