Forecaster lowers '07 hurricane estimate 1 hour, 23 minutes ago



Hurricane researcher William Gray lowered his 2007 forecast slightly Friday, calling for 15 named storms, with eight becoming hurricanes and four becoming intense.

On May 31, at the outset of hurricane season, Gray had called for 17 named storms and nine hurricanes, five of them intense.

"We've lowered our forecast from our May predictions because of slightly less favorable conditions in the tropical Atlantic," said Philip Klotzbach, a member of Gray's team at Colorado State University.

The new forecast calls for three named storms, two hurricanes and one intense hurricane in August; five named storms, four hurricanes and two intense hurricanes in September; and five named storms, two hurricanes and one intense hurricane in October and November combined.

The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, averages 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

Despite the reduction, Gray said, the activity called for in the new forecast is still 60 percent more than the long-term average.

There were 10 named Atlantic storms last year and five hurricanes, two of them major. None of the hurricanes hit the U.S. coast.

The latest forecast put the chances of an intense hurricane hitting the U.S. coastline at 68 percent for the rest of this season.

Chances of an intense hurricane hitting the East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, are 43 percent, Gray said. For the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas, the probability is 44 percent.

The forecast also called for above-average risk of a major hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean.

The devastating 2005 season set a record with 28 named storms, 15 of them hurricanes. Four hurricanes hit the U.S., including Katrina, which devastated parts of the Gulf Coast.



You know what this may mean???

You know what this may mean???

:confused:
no.
what may this mean?

It means cheaper gasoline, for one. That's a big, big deal. Inflation is based on uncertainty. Hurricanes make the future less certain so people are less secure and they would rather buy things now instead of waiting until a hurricane comes and creates a shortage - causing prices to be higher. If they buy things now they drive up the prices of things now. But when the future becomes more certain their demand for things now falls and their demand for things in the future fall - which means inflation falls. That is a good thing.

FYI, there are derivatives you can buy based on the number of days we have sunshine or the number of days it rains or how many hurricanes. Because such weather patterns determine what can be made or produced and what can't be made or produced.

interesting

Oh and to put it more in context with the Bahamian economy, it also means more travel. More travel means more tourists.

It means cheaper gasoline, for one. That's a big, big deal. Inflation is based on uncertainty. Hurricanes make the future less certain so people are less secure and they would rather buy things now instead of waiting until a hurricane comes and creates a shortage - causing prices to be higher. If they buy things now they drive up the prices of things now. But when the future becomes more certain their demand for things now falls and their demand for things in the future fall - which means inflation falls. That is a good thing.
FYI, there are derivatives you can buy based on the number of days we have sunshine or the number of days it rains or how many hurricanes. Because such weather patterns determine what can be made or produced and what can't be made or produced.


interesting.
in that case, i hope the number of expected hurricanes continues to drop.
the good Lord knows we can use some good ol' deflation right about now.

interesting.
in that case, i hope the number of expected hurricanes continues to drop.
the good Lord knows we can use some good ol' deflation right about now.


I dont think I have ever heard that term under the topic of economics or finance!

I dont think I have ever heard that term under the topic of economics or finance!


Deflation is the opposite of inflation. Its used in economics and finance all the time.

I know what it means. It's just that everday you hear about the inflation situtation more.

They always revise the list a few time during the season - mostly down. Surely the market knows this? Also, it says nothing about where the storms could be. If we got just one and it hit oil rigs in the gulf that would be a bad year! On the other hand we could have ten that did no damage. That would be a good year. The numbers mean very little to me.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deflation.asp

Deflationary Spiral & Deflation.